Sitemap - 2024 - Early Morning with Dave
Beware of China Exporting Its Deflation in 2025
Bond Market Sentiment Could Scarcely Be Worse
The S&P 500 just hit a "Generational Number"
Fed Back on Inflation Watch and Risk Premia Shoot Higher
Santa Rally Stuck in the Chimney
Canada and Germany Join the Political Instability List
Beware the Front Cover Effect!
China’s Economic Planning Meeting Ends With a Dud
Throwing Caution to the Wind (It’s Still Working!)
How Does Canada Respond to a 25% Tariff Hike? Through a C$1.60 Loonie!
What Happens Next After Back-To-Back 30% Surges in the S&P 500 Total Return Index?
Beijing Pledges More Stimulus -- Hang Seng is the Big Winner
Challenger Data Show Layoffs Soaring and Hirings Slumping
Our Conservative Investing Style Has Still Generated a +14% YTD Net Return!
S&P 500 Makes a 54th High for the Year but with Soft Market Internals
Markets Expect the Best and Dismiss the Worst Parts of the Trump Plan
The Fed on Financial Vulnerabilities
Bond market gets more optimistic over a December rate cut
RBNZ Cuts, But The New Zealand Dollar Rallies Anyway
Was the Bessent Bounce a One-Day Wonder?
Trump Rally Morphs Into Bessent Rally
Negative Data Shock Out Of Germany Sends Euro Closer to Par
Nvidia Slightly Disappoints, But Markets Take It In Stride
Putin's Nuclear Saber-Rattling Sparks Safe-Haven Demand
Time to De-Risk and Shift Into Cash
Mixed Chinese Data Leave Investors Unimpressed
Take Trump Seriously, Not Literally
Breaking Down Inflation Perception and Reality
Swaps Market Thinking the Fed Could Be Done In December
China's Fiscal Plan Falls Flat
Investors Revisit the 2016 Playbook
Resounding Trump Win Unleashes Massive Risk-on Trade
50-Day Trendlines All The Rage
Tech Mega Caps Post Solid Results
What stays in Vegas is a pullback at the casinos
Time to Shift from the S&P 500 to the TSX
Oil Prices Dive on Measured Iranian Response
Consumers Revolt Over High Prices
Bonds Continue To Sell Off and Equity Markets Take Note With A Lag
Stock Market Rallies Further Absent Any Positive EPS Revision Momentum
China's Sales/Production Data And PBOC Measures Spark A Renewed Risk-On Rally
Below-Consensus Inflation News Out of the U.K. and New Zealand Spark a Bond Rally
China Details Its Economic Relief Plan But Doubts Linger On Whether It Will Be Enough?
More On Why We Think Payrolls Were A Head-Fake
How Do You Say “Nothing Burger” in Mandarin?
Treasuries move from overbought to oversold
The ISMs Job Indices Point To A Downside NFP Surprise
The BoJ and BoE Turn Less Hawkish
2024 Economy Is Tracking 2007 Thus Far
Bad News Is Good News In China
China Remains in the Spotlight (Palliative Moves)
Utility Stocks Continue to Get Positively Re-Rated
Sober Second Thought on China’s Stimulus
PBOC Easing Moves Provide a Risk-On Spark
Equities About to Face Challenging Seasonals
Dissecting Powell's Dichotomies
Bond Market Not Liking Powell's Spin
A Classic Rate-Cutting Cycle Is Upon Us
“Gig Economy” Skews Labor Market Data
Quiet Markets Ahead of This Week's Key FOMC Meeting
Breaking Down the Shifts in Consumer Spending
Has the Consumer Recession Finally Arrived?
Beige Book and Consumer Flag Disinflation Pressures Ahead of Today’s CPI Report
Data Revisions Indicate Loss of Economic Momentum
China’s Deflation Risks Intensify
Excess Capacity and the Road to Non-Sticky Inflation
Beige Book Flagging a Soft Jobs Number Tomorrow
S&P 500 Saved by the 50-Day Trendline
Equity Momentum Still Going Strong as the Market Broadens Out
How to Make up to a 40% Total Return...
Frugality Undercurrents in Nordstrom’s Better-Than-Expected Results
Rotation Into Defensive and Rate-Sensitive Equity Sectors
Global Inflation Expectations on a Downward Path
Sharp 818K Downward Payroll Revision From the QCEW
Economic Warning Signs Out of Lowe’s/Walmart
Longest Winning Streak of the Year for Global Equities
The Only Thing That Matters This Week
Yen Carry Trade Stages a Comeback
More Bond-Friendly News Emerges
Investors Wake up to Heightened Geopolitical Risks
Lower Rates Do Not Require a Recession
Bulls Romp in the Morning, Bears Roar in the Afternoon
BoJ Helps Build on the Renewed Risk-on Trade
Big Difference Between Rate Cuts That Save the Economy From Recession and Those That Don’t
July Saw the Lowest Number of New Hiring Announcements on Record!
Powell Was More Dovish Than the Press Statement
BoJ Hikes and Bank Stocks Love It!
An “Everything Rally” to Kick Off the Week
U.S. Equities Have Lost -$2.6 Trillion In Market Value Since Mid-July
Pop Goes the Bubble… Mag Seven Enters Correction Mode
Earnings Struggle to Match Investor Expectations
Taylor Rule Says the Funds Rate Should Be at 4%... Now!
Muted Reaction to Joe Biden’s Exit
Value Trade Is Just That... A Trade
Bank of Canada Is Way Behind the Curve
Inflation Volatility Theme Goes Silent
Value Trade Could Be a Value Trap
Consumer Cracks With No More Snacks
Historically Low Correlation Between the S&P 500 and GDP
Deflation Pressures Build in China
2025 EPS Revisions +2.6% This Year, S&P 500 +16.8%... No Bubble??
Fed More Dovish Than Dots Implied
Jobless Claims and Challenger Layoffs Raise a Yellow Flag
Let’s Play a Game of Concentration
More Adverse News for Consumer/Retailer Stocks
659 Days Since the Equal Weight S&P 1500 Hit an All-Time High
The Election Shouldn’t Stand in the Way of a September Fed Rate Cut
Exposing The Market’s Deep Imbalances
Data Surprise Index Back to August 2022 Levels
SNB Surprises With Another Rate Cut
Hiccup in Gilt Yields in Response to Stubborn Service Sector Inflation
What the Bankruptcy Data Are Telling Us
Small Cap Relative Strength Index Breaks Key Long-Term Support Levels
The S&P 493 Index Has Seen Profits Drop -3% Over the Past Year!
It's CPI and Fed Day — Best Not to Leave Your Desk
Stock Market Priced for +17% EPS Growth for the Coming Five Years (3x the Norm!)
Fed and CPI Are the Keys to the Week
Risks Skewed for a Soft Payroll Report
Stocks and Bonds Rally in Tandem
All Eyes Now on the Bank of Canada
What Is the Message From the Bond Market?
Markets Primed for a Correction
This Is NOT an Earnings-Driven Stock Market
Some Encouraging News on the Inflation Front
Default and Credit-Loss Cycle in Canada Clips the Loonie’s Wings
What Is With This Mortgage Refinancing Craze?
More Tough News Out of the Retailers
An (Dangerously) Asset-Dependent Economy
Utilities Re-Rated From Rate-Sensitivity to Growth
Why Walmart Is a Classic Contra-Cyclical Indicator
Deflation (That’s Correct) in the Cyclically-Adjusted CPI
Downside Risks to Retail Sales and CPI
Cracks in the Employment Data Continue to Widen
All Eyes Are on the Bank of England
Pandemic-Era Excess Savings Are All Gone
Chicago Fed Survey Flashes Accelerating Macro Weakness
Market Odds Move Back to a September Rate Cut
Massive Decline in Challenger Hiring Plans
Expect Powell to Pivot Again By August
Will Powell Address the QCEW Job Contraction?
Markets Are Thinking Just One Cut by Year-End
Don’t Be Fooled by the Core Deflator
The Hang Seng Quietly Stages an Impressive Turnaround
Global Treasury Bid Is Alive and Well
Equity Momentum Support Fades to Neutral
Negative Reversals Become the Order of the Day
Why the Recession Has Been Held at Bay (For Now)
Cyclical CPI Deflates for the First Time Since August 2020!
Markets Breathe a Sigh of Relief (For Now)
An “Everything Rally” Despite Relentless U.S. Dollar Strength
Three Standard Deviation Move in Yields is Hard to Believe
Markets Await Today's CPI Report
Major Indices Are Struggling at Their Near-Term Trendlines
Time to Key In On Q1 Earnings Season
Market Sentiment Back to January 2018 Levels
Equities React With a Lag to the Bond Market
China’s Property Debacle Is a Key "Tail Risk"
The Bond Market Is at a Critical Juncture
Is the Helium Leaving the Balloon?
S&P 500 at 14% Above the 200-Day M.A.
Treasury Yields at a Critical Technical Juncture
Still a Wide Array of Non-Confirmations
The Bullish Case for Japan Revisited
Looks Like Q1 Real GDP Growth Will Print Negative
BoJ Tightens but Dovish Guidance Wins the Day
Inflation Narrative Is Driving Markets
The S&P 500 Is Priced for 45% Earnings Growth in 2024!!
Sluggish Weekly Start for the Risk-On Trade
Bitcoin and Gold Hit Record Highs Together for the First Time Ever
Q1 GDP Estimates Are Coming Down Hard
Japanese Equities Hit a New All-Time High
Fed Frustrated Over Financial Conditions
Japanese Stocks Set a New Record High
Chinese Stocks Continue to Disappoint
Recession Thumbprints on the Sales and Production Numbers
Unprecedented Data Divergences
Real Wages Turn Negative Year-Over-Year
The Tradeoff Between a 4.8% Equity Yield and a 5.4% T-Bill Yield
Listening to (And Facing) the Music
In a Quiet Session, the Bulls Had the Upper Hand Yet Again
China’s Economy Deflates at Fastest Level Since 2009
Stimulus Hopes Generate a Short-Covering Rally in China
RBA Sounds Hawkish and Deutsche Bank Abandons Its Recession Call
S&P 500 Hits Record High but Breadth Measures Erode
Watch Jay Powell This Sunday on 60 Minutes!
ADP Data Flag Wage Contraction... Not Just Wage Slowing, But Wage Contraction!
Will the Fed Be Spooked by Easing Financial Conditions?
What Does It Mean to Have Chinese Bond Yields Dive to 22-Year Lows?
Big Test for the Markets This Week
GDP Optimism Fades to Earnings Pessimism
More Uneven Earnings, More Gloomy Guidance
Asian Stocks Rally on PBOC Cut to the Banking Sector RRR
China Floats a Stimulus Trial Balloon and Markets Respond
Massive Divergences as the S&P 500 Hits Record High
Beige Book Was Rather Blue on the Retail Sales Backdrop
The Fed Really Wants to Take the Punch Bowl Away
China Prepares For a Fiscal Boost, But Asian Equities Still Take a Dive
Credit Strains and Consumer Frugality
Investors Fade the Allegedly "Hot" CPI Report
All Eyes on Today's CPI Report
Fresh Three-Decade Highs for Japanese Stocks
Why Spoil the Party With the Fundamentals?
Risk-Off Trade Extends to Week-Two of the Year
Markets Heed the Fed's Message on the Undesirable "Easing in Financial Conditions"
Bad Housing News to Kick Off the Year
Turn Out the Lights, the Party's Over!
The Long Bond Has Generated a +20% Net Return Since Mid-October!