The ISMs Job Indices Point To A Downside NFP Surprise

This is the second lowest reading since June 2020

Highlights

• Weak ISM employment numbers set the stage for a downside surprise on NFP

• Fed speak and the SEP forecasts tell two different stories

• Anemic credit growth doesn’t confirm the message coming from GDP

• Gap between the consumer survey data and “resilience” narrative is widening

While We Were Sleeping

“Rates need to come down over the next twelve …