Will Powell Address the QCEW Job Contraction?
Employment data gap opening up between QCEW and NFP reports
Highlights
Employment data gap opening up between QCEW and NFP reports
The dive in the personal savings rate is the real story behind GDP growth
Real world evidence of consumer frugality paints a different picture than the BLS data
Is the Fed really addressing “irrational exuberance?”
While We Were Sleeping
Global equities are on the mixed side — U.S. futures are trading a tad lower as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq confront crucial tests of their 50-day trendlines. European markets are off -0.6% and losing ground by the hour. Asia was up for the most part: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.2%; helped along by an in-your-face +3.8% MoM rebound in March industrial output, exceeding market views of a +3.3% gain), Thailand (+0.6%), Hong Kong (+0.3%), Singapore and India (+0.3% a piece), and Korea (+0.2%). These helped blunt losses in Taiwan (-0.5%) and China’s Shanghai Composite (-0.3%)
Bond yields across the pond and in the U.S. are up a touch (+2 basis points to 4.63% for the 10- year T-note yield) but have fallen across Asia (-6 basis points in Australia and New Zealand to 4.42% and 4.88%, respectively… and by -4 basis points in China to 2.31%). Bond markets in the Eurozone may not have liked the fact that Germany’s inflation rate picked up a little in April to +2.4% YoY from +2.3% alongside the upside surprise on area-wide growth (+0.3% QoQ, vs +0.1% expected), but what they seem to have missed was the very encouraging drift lower in the core rate to +3.0% from +3.3% (this paved the way for a move down to +2.7% from +2.9% for the entire euro area).
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