The Bond Market Is at a Critical Juncture

10-year yields are at a critical juncture between the 50- and 100-day trendlines

Highlights

• 10-year yields are at a critical juncture between the 50- and 100-day trendlines

• Dismal data flow to start Q1 points to GDP contraction

• Dot plot implied rate cut says more about a recession than a soft landing

• Which major central bank is next to cut after the SNB?

While We Were Sleeping

Well, quite the session yesterday. The Dow was up a ripping +478 points or +1.2% for the best day of the year for the blue chips. The S&P 500 marked a new record close — ending a three-day losing streak in style. The Nasdaq lagged (+0.5%) but still managed to snap a two-day decline. All of this with the likes of Nvidia losing ground for a second straight day (-2.5% after the -2.6% Tuesday retreat). Other AI plays like ARM Holdings and Broadcom saw rounds of profit-taking too.