Data Surprise Index Back to August 2022 Levels

A string of data misses signal a soft economic backdrop

Highlights

• A string of data misses signal a soft economic backdrop

• The BoC must continue to ease irrespective of what the Fed does

• A dovish hold by the BoE — cuts likely at the next meeting

• A vicious deflationary cycle looms over the Chinese economy

While We Were Sleeping

We are seeing something very rare today, which is red arrows across U.S. equity futures (Nvidia down again in the overnight trade after yesterday’s -3.5% giveback) — with $5.5 trillion in options expiration in a “triple-witching” session (tied to indices, stocks and ETFs) to close the week (beware of heightened volatility in the final hour of trading).