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Why the Recession Has Been Held at Bay (For Now)
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Why the Recession Has Been Held at Bay (For Now)

The bull market in economic growth boils down to the heavy hand and generosity of Uncle Sam!

David Rosenberg's avatar
David Rosenberg
Apr 17, 2024
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Early Morning with Dave
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Why the Recession Has Been Held at Bay (For Now)
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Highlights

• Powell joins in on the “higher for longer” narrative

• No asset class is priced for a recession

• Uncle Sam and the wealth effect are driving the economy

• The next three years will see a significant refinancing wave

While We Were Sleeping

Well, it is a mixed start to the day. U.S. equity futures are up, but just by a smidge. European markets are roughly flat here in the early going. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite saw a dead-cat bounce of +2.1% and Taiwan rallied +1.6%, but the good news ended there as we saw losses in Thailand (-2.3%), Japan’s once-hot Nikkei 225 (-1.3%), and Korea (-1.0%). The Nikkei 225 failed to respond positively to the news that Japan’s exports expanded for the fourth month in a row in March (the cheap yen is a tailwind) — up a healthy +7.3% on a YoY basis (consensus was +7.0%).

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