Early Morning with Dave

Early Morning with Dave

Share this post

Early Morning with Dave
Early Morning with Dave
Swaps Market Thinking the Fed Could Be Done In December

Swaps Market Thinking the Fed Could Be Done In December

A tectonic shift in Fed expectations is behind the bond market selloff

David Rosenberg's avatar
David Rosenberg
Nov 11, 2024
∙ Paid
1

Share this post

Early Morning with Dave
Early Morning with Dave
Swaps Market Thinking the Fed Could Be Done In December
1
Share

Highlights

  • A tectonic shift in Fed expectations is behind the bond market selloff

  • Investors pick up the “Trump Trade” where they left off last week

  • Speculative longs and complacent positioning define the market

  • Price and lending data show China stimulus faltering

Key Takeaways

Investors Pick Up Where They Ended Last Week’s Market Action

  • Markets start the week where they left off — equities are in rally mode (the S&P 500 looks set to close above the 6,000 mark) and bonds are extending their gains that began in the latter half of last week (core sovereign European yields down between -2 and -6 basis points but the U.S. Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day). The dollar is higher, weighing on commodities, but Bitcoin has advanced to new record highs just below the $82k mark.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Early Morning with Dave to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Rosenberg Research
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share