Time to Shift from the S&P 500 to the TSX

Long-term momentum technical indicator favors the TSX over the S&P 500

Highlights

• Long-term momentum technical indicator favors the TSX over the S&P 500

• The overlooked election trade is… “volatility”

• 39 states have seen unemployment rise by +0.5 percentage points from cycle lows

• Hurricane effects will distort the coming macro data (not good for a “data-dependent” Fed)

Key Takeaways

Earnings Season Update

• One-third of the way into Q3 earnings season: (i) the share of companies beating expectations is a smidge below the long-run norm, (ii) Q4 and 2025 consensus EPS estimates are down, and (iii) guidance has been mixed at best.