Will "Higher for Longer" End up Being "Transitory?"

Highlights

• The equity market looks to be in danger — the divergence between the equal-weight and market cap-weight S&P 500 has reached levels that many times in the past have presaged a freefall 

• Continuing our theme that the business cycle has not been repealed, a new survey shows that half of small businesses are seeing rates weigh on growth and profitability 

• Beware of pundits bearing revisions to R-star: the neutral rate reflects deep structural features of the economy, not short-term fluctuations like the fiscal stance 

• We go looking for evidence of a “soft landing” in charts, and come up short