Trump’s Dovish Turn on Iran Rhetoric Sends Oil Sharply Lower

Jan 15, 2026

∙ Paid

Key Takeaways

Geopolitical Risk Premium in Oil Declines: The largest overnight market move in Asian markets was in oil, as President Trump downplayed the risks of any war with Iran. Trump stated that he believed that killing in Iran had stopped, after previously stating he would consider “very strong action” in the event of protestor deaths. Both Brent and WTI crude are down -4.0%.
Banks Are the First Key Test of Q4 Earnings Season: Things are pointing to risk-on in the overnight trade, with U.S. equity futures in the green column this morning, looking to break a two-day string of losses. Bank earnings are in focus for the U.S. equity markets today, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock all reporting Q4 earnings. Yesterday’s earnings from J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup were solid overall, but the cautious commentary from J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon left some investors on the nervous side.
Fiscal Stimulus Hopes for 2026 Are Overstated: While the headline fiscal impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is large on paper, much of the impact is skewed to the rich, meaning that the Keynesian multiplier effects on GDP are low. Applying reasonable assumptions about effects at different income levels, a total fiscal cost of around $460 billion in 2026 only nets out to $90 billion in fiscal impulse affecting GDP. That implies a +0.3% effect on growth, less than many hyper-optimistic forecasts are counting on.