The Bond-Bullion Barbell Enjoys a Rare Positive Session

The new math for AI simply doesn't work, whether today's investor base realizes it or not

Key Takeaways

• Early-Cycle Momentum in a Late-Cycle Market: It is nothing short of remarkable that, in the context of a huge energy shock, the S&P 500 is coming off its ninth straight weekly gain, something that has only happened ten other times since 1950, and is generally reserved for periods when the Fed is easing and oil prices are falling, as was the case in the last go-around, which commenced on December 12th, 1985. Not to mention that such a string of strength is typical of early-cycle activity, not the mature phase when valuations get stretched, and risk premia evaporate.