Some Big Surprises Emerged in 2025

We left 2025 in risk-off mode, but enter 2026 with the risk-on trade staging a revival on the back of rising Tech stocks and firming commodity markets.

Key Takeaways

• New Year Rally Across Asset Classes: Santa is no longer stuck in the chimney, with everything rallying to kick off 2026: equities (Tech mostly), Bitcoin, gold, and silver. For investors with a global footprint, Asian equities retain the same alluring characteristics that led to massive outperformance in 2025.

• Oil Market Supported By Geopolitical and Supply Factors: The oil market is receiving support from three sources: (i) OPEC+ members hinting at an extended pause on its supply-increase strategy, (ii) the heightened geopolitical risks surrounding Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, and (iii) depleted U.S. oil stockpiles which closed 2025 about -3.0% below the 5-year average.

• Precious Metals Outstrip Other Commodities: We have reached a situation in the precious metals complex where one ounce of silver now buys you 1.26 barrels of oil. This is 4x the historical norm. For the first time in centuries, an ounce of gold buys you more than 600 bushels of wheat, and that is 3x the norm back to the 1980s. If you adhere to Bob Farrell’s rule #1 on mean reversion, then you should probably contemplate some more rebalancing.