Renewed Investor Macro Optimism Looks Misplaced and Premature

Tariffs haven’t disappeared — yet sentiment looks the other way

Highlights

• Tariffs haven’t disappeared — yet sentiment looks the other way

• The dollar starts to lose its post-China talk momentum

• U.K. growth surprises to the upside to end Q1

• Economic uncertainty remains high even amidst market recovery

Key Takeaways

• Tech Masks Market Weakness: The stock market rally wobbled a bit yesterday, but the recent Tech dominance remained in play (Nvidia in particular) and masked some modest underlying weakness. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight index, less affected by mega caps, fell -1.3%, just above the 200-day trendline. Decliners led advancers by roughly two-to-one on the NYSE and were close to matching that imbalance on the Nasdaq.