Recession Thumbprints on the Sales and Production Numbers

Only in the first quarter of 1978 did we fail to have a recession with this combination of weakness in sales volumes and manufacturing activity in the first month of a quarter

Highlights

• A strange new world — stocks rally on recessionary data and bonds sell off on deflation

• Fiscal stimulus and credit are keeping the U.S. economy afloat (not sustainable)

• Looking at index turnover and performance… a case for passive investing

• Emerging Markets look attractive from a valuation standpoint