President Trump Celebrates His 80th With One Fight Starting on the White House Lawn, Another One Ending in the Middle East

SpaceX euphoria followed by a peace-deal relief rally

Key Takeaways

• Oil Markets Will Take Time to Normalize: This interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war (hopefully) and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has unleashed an “everything rally” across the globe, save for the oil price and the U.S. dollar. One can reasonably expect a geopolitical risk premium of some size to remain intact. There is, after all, a long row to hoe to bring the daily traffic of oil back to the pre-war norm of 18 million barrels per day (mbd) — and the insurance industry’s response will obviously be another factor to consider. The SPR will need to be replenished, and commercial stockpiles are under huge stress. Ergo, as the oil price and E&P energy stocks overshoot to the downside, an attractive buying opportunity will beckon.