Oil Rally Hits a Wall on Fresh IEA Supply-Demand Forecasts

Oil supply growth constrains the price risk from Israel-Iran strikes

Highlights

• Oil supply growth constrains the price risk from Israel-Iran strikes

• Weak manufacturing data and surveys point to flat or negative growth

• S&P 500 returns since November election are historically weak

• Global food supply pressures make agriculture a key sector play

Key Takeaways

Manufacturing Data Point to Economic Weakness:

• The consensus narrative remains that “the economy is solid.” I really think Jay Powell should be shifting his cheerleading tone on the macro side of things today before his comments become laughable. How “solid” is a microscopic +0.5% YoY trend in manufacturing activity? Flat must be the new up for the macro bulls.