Markets Think the Ceasefire Will Hold (Even Though It Isn't)

A Wile E. Coyote market fails to see that almost three-quarters of the U.S. economy is contracting — the GDP headline was saved by AI and the epic savings rate drawdown.

Key Takeaways

• Markets Shrug Off Geopolitical Risk: Global equity markets are responding positively to today’s dip in the oil price as investors adopt a “what me, worry?” approach to the fact that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in tatters. Markets are convinced that President Trump is still seeking an “off ramp” given his ever-declining approval ratings and the cracks emerging within the ranks of the GOP.