Kevin Warsh’s First Meeting — and First Test

Today's Fed meeting will shed light on the response to the energy shock — even as oil prices recede ahead of Friday’s expected peace deal.

Key Takeaways

• Kevin Warsh’s Debutante Ball: All investors are on tenterhooks regarding today’s FOMC and Warsh’s debut. The rate decision is a done deal: the market is fully priced for no move. However, everyone will be keenly focused on any changes to the post-meeting statement and what Warsh might, or might not, say in the press conference. Though long a critic of forward guidance, markets will hang on his every word for any guidance on what to anticipate from a Warsh-led Fed, particularly as the market is well priced for the Fed to raise its policy rate before year-end. Will Warsh reinforce market pricing? Push back? Or, give no clues? The Statement of Economic Projections will show the revised forecasts for 2026 growth, inflation, and the labor market — giving big clues for the rest of the year.