Hot CPI Data in Europe Puts ECB Back Into Play

The ECB is priced 55% of the way for a hike next month

Highlights

• Stronger than expected CPI data out of France follows Spain from yesterday — the ECB is priced 55% of the way for a hike next month

• We are starting to see the doves become a bit more vocal of late, with the Fed’s Bostic from Atlanta stating that rates are currently “appropriately restrictive”

• Bad news is good news again — the Citi surprise index has experienced a pace of disappointment we have not seen since May 2022 and the S&P 500 has jumped over 3% since

• Even without a hit to incomes from a cooling labor market, reverting back to the pre-COVID-19 norm in the savings rate alone can bring the economy into a consumer-led frugality recession