Good Riddance to the “First Hundred Days”

100 days of market turbulence and economic uncertainty

Highlights

• 100 days of market turbulence and economic uncertainty

• More evidence of weakening macro conditions in China

• All that tariffs have managed to do is widen the trade deficit

• Recessionary sentiment was prevalent in the April survey data

Key Takeaways

• China PMI Back in Contraction: On the data front, China’s manufacturing sector shifted back into contraction mode in April, with the official manufacturing PMI dropping more than expected to 49.0 from 50.5 in March. Export orders sagged to their most contractionary level since December 2022 as the trade war begins to bite. The service sector and construction comparables also came in light relative to expectations.