Gold Breaks Above $4,000 Even in the Face of the USD Countertrend Rally

This leg of the gold rally is being driven by interest rates, structural pressures, and risk hedging — not the U.S. dollar.

Key Takeaways

• Gold Continues a Breakout Year: The really big news overnight was that even with the dollar strength, the gold price managed to jump a further +1.3% to $4,025 per ounce. The shiny metal has doubled over the span of just two years and is up more than +50% so far in 2025. And hitting $4,000 per ounce just six months after crossing above the $3,000 threshold. Not since the inflation breakout in 1979 has gold experienced a year like this — but the reasons for the rally this time around are far more varied. One key factor: the ongoing FX reserve diversification process towards bullion, as central banks have bought 415 tons of gold in the first half of the year.