Fiscal Uncertainty on the Back Burner; Trade Uncertainty on the Front Burner

U.S. dollar slides again as Big Beautiful Bill passes

Highlights

• U.S. dollar slides again as Big Beautiful Bill passes

• Private payrolls ex-health and education barely budged in June

• Global equities down on unilateral tariff fears

• European industrial data remain weak

Key Takeaways

• June Payroll Data Less Impressive Than the Headline: From the sublime to the ridiculous. That’s the only way to describe yesterday’s data and the market response. Somehow, the nonfarm payroll report was deemed a huge success despite the negative implications for June industrial production and personal income. Not to mention that outside of health care and education, private payrolls only managed to expand +23k (+0.02%), which is half the average monthly gain over the prior twelve months. There was nothing in the data to knock us off our unfortunately downbeat view of the U.S. macro backdrop.