Fed's Nominal Growth Forecast Smacks of Recession

What was delayed in 2023 shall not be derailed in 2024

Highlights

• Bonds rally across the globe with the tightening cycle now in the rear-view mirror

• Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was all about how far and how fast to cut rates

• The Fed is acting on real-time survey signals such as the Beige Book

• The FOMC’s nominal growth projection (3.8%) is recessionary