Eyes on CPI as Stock Market Rally Stretches Higher

A soft CPI print will reverse the rising trend in Treasury yields

Highlights

• A soft CPI print will reverse the rising trend in Treasury yields

• China’s strong GDP data show resilient exports

• Domestic copper prices soar on new tariff, hurting the goods sector

• Falling rents and home sales are disinflationary for Canada

Key Takeaways

• CPI Data Will Make or Break the Treasury Trend: All eyes will turn to the June CPI release later this morning (released at 8:30 a.m. ET) with consensus estimates indicating a +0.3% MoM increase for both the core and headline series. Any softer-than-expected print will likely provide a further boost to the momentum-driven stock market but should also help reverse Treasury yields (the 30-year approaching 5.0% and the 10-year pushing against 4.5%).