Highlights
• Equity valuations are at odds with the hard data
• No dovish signs from Powell despite Trump pressure
• DXY dollar index lowest since February 2022
• Treasury market is finally rallying
Key Takeaways
• Big Beautiful Bill Moves Closer to Passage: The Big, Beautiful Bill made it through the Senate by one single vote (with J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote… now the bill goes back to the House). Investors are lapping up these Trump wins (though the polls show only 30% of the general public supports the budget bill). The CBO estimates that the budget bill will tack on +$3.3 trillion to the national debt by 2034, but that $4.5 trillion of that is the “tax relief” from not falling off the fiscal cliff (extending the 2017 cuts). So, it’s difficult to understand where all the talk of net “stimulus” comes from.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Early Morning with Dave to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.