Canadian CPI Blip Way Overblown

First time I've seen the Treasury market respond to a Canadian CPI report...

Highlights

• Expectations for a “hawkish skip” from the Fed have solidified, and the consensus is that 2024 dot plots will show virtually no change in policy

• What resilient consumer? The SPDR S&P Retail ETF is trading at a 3.5 month low and has broken below all three major trendlines

• The threat of a government shutdown is real, as the Inflation Reduction Act costing twice the initial estimates adds fuel to the fire

• An upside surprise in Canadian CPI puts the Bank of Canada in a tough spot (and we’re astounded that Treasuries appeared to respond to Canadian inflation)