Bond-Bullion Barbell is Back in Vogue

Gold is in a secular bull run — outperforming the S&P 500 by +530 percentage points since 2000

Highlights

• Gold is in a secular bull run — outperforming the S&P 500 by +530 percentage points since 2000

• The U.S.-China trade war increases uncertainty on business capex plans

• Lower 10-year yields will be a function of fiscal discipline and an easier tariff strategy

• Keep an eye on employment data revisions tomorrow

Key Takeaways

Trump’s Focus on Lower 10-Year Yields

• Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts. This headline is from Bloomberg news. The only advice I have for the Treasury Secretary is that if you really want lower 10-year Treasury note yields then (i) keep on with the spending cuts; (ii) refrain from slicing taxes at a time of full employment, (iii) maintain the deregulation thrust, (iv) try to stop talking down the dollar, and (v) go easy on the tariff strategy.