Bond Bid Holds Up as Fedspeak and Market Commentary Softens

The view is building that the central bank rate cycle has finally hit its peak

Highlights

• Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 EPS growth to hit +14% by Q3 2024 — they are in for a surprise

• The yield back-up is all about the Fed: history shows policy rate tightening dominates fiscal easing in bond markets

• The average time from the last Fed hike to the first Fed cut is 10 months — “higher for longer” would be a historic achievement

• Retailers and distributors are anticipating deep discounts to lure consumers into holiday season spending