Are the Political Winds Blowing Left?

Markets weigh the looming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the latest labor-market data, while Treasuries firm, the U.S. dollar slips, and gold creeps higher.

Key Takeaways

• Supreme Court Ruling Against Tariffs Could Act as a “Tax Cut”: Yesterday’s rally may well have been premised on reports that the Supreme Court appears to be leaning against the sweeping Trump tariffs. The ruling is expected in mid-December, and it is being viewed as a potential de facto “tax cut.”

• Layoffs Surge While ADP Headline Shows Employment Gains: Some pundits point to the apparent strength in the ADP and ISM data, but there is less than meets the eye in both indicators. Not to mention the evidence that both auto sales and chain-store sales pulled back in October. Challenger layoff data for last month were just released, showing layoffs soaring by +175% to the highest number for any October dating back to 2003.

• Ballot Box Signals Economic Disapproval: Tuesday’s ballot results can be boiled down to the loss of confidence over the Administration’s economic policies, as an NBC poll shows that only 30% of the general public believes that the President has lived up to his goal in tackling the critical cost-of-living issue — that is his lowest mark, even though it was the #1 campaign issue a year ago. The share of the public who believes the economy is getting worse is more than double the 21% who see things improving — not an encouraging harbinger for next year’s midterms.