Another Day of Rising Oil Prices Fails to Dent the Risk-On Trade

Consensus narrative is a U.S. economic boom; but the data show stall-speed growth.

Key Takeaways

• China’s Q2 GDP Falls Below Target: China did not participate in the Asian equity rally today because its Q2 real GDP data really disappointed — slowing to +4.3% year-over-year, which undercut both the +4.5% consensus forecast and the official target of +4.5% to +5.0%. The +1.8% QoQ annualized growth rate was the softest in nearly four years. That said, some solid forward momentum is evident in the monthly data, which portends a better Q3, because Chinese retail sales did manage to surprise to the upside in June (+1.0% YoY versus the -0.1% consensus estimate and -0.6% in May), as did industrial production (+5.3% YoY — accelerating from +4.5% in May and again besting the consensus estimate of +4.6%).