A Record-Low 2% of Portfolio Managers See a “Hard Landing” on the Horizon

Surging stock sales and deal flow are classic late-cycle developments

Key Takeaways

• Oil Shrugs Off Escalation in the Strait: The U.S. struck Iran for a fifth day (hitting a supertanker near Iran’s Kharg Island in the first vessel attack since the blockade resumed) and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle (with Iran retaliating), but the oil price rally looks to have stalled at $79 per barrel for WTI (and $84 per barrel for Brent). Asian equities look to have reacted the most, down -1.4% overnight, with the Emerging Markets trading off by -1.2%. This came even though Taiwan Semiconductor raised its revenue (over +40% YoY) and spending ($60-$64 billion from $52-$56 billion) projections for the year.