2024 Story Is About Policy Lags and No More Fiscal Support

The lags from the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s are slowly starting to kick in

Highlights

• Investors embrace the “no-recession” view — pushing stocks higher on sentiment and momentum 

• But valuations, deteriorating fundamentals, and poor equity market math loom overhead 

• Lots of disinflationary evidence point to benign inflation prints ahead 

• No “consumer resilience” in the weekly card spending data