• SOX Rally Snaps After Massive Surge: There was a first yesterday in an otherwise ho-hum session. For the first time in eighteen trading days, the SOX index closed with a loss. But not before the bellwether semiconductor composite surged +47% from the late-March trough.

• Big Tech Earnings Face High Expectations: With five of the Magnificent Seven stocks set to report results this week, and up +20% in the past four weeks, a lot is riding on the profits, sales, and guidance to come out of the results. The bar has been set high. At the same time, one can legitimately ask what sort of rally this actually has been, because recent trading volume has been exceptionally light (last week for the S&P 500, it was the lowest since COVID-19), which smacks of acute short-covering and position adjustments. More of that, it seems, than fresh capital coming to the fore.

• Consumer Stocks Show Weakness: The rally in Consumer Discretionary stocks ended with the group falling around -4% shy of its early-year peak, and Consumer Staples off more than -7% from its pre-war level. Yesterday was not just renowned for Nvidia and Alphabet nudging up to fresh records, but shares of Domino’s Pizza tumbled -8.8% to a three-year low on the back of some dismal same-store sales growth numbers and squishy-soft guidance. The problems didn’t stop there, because Dollar Tree dropped -5.5%, Ulta Beauty fell -3.4%, while Taco Bell parent, Yum Brands, slid -3.2%. So, for whatever reason, the onset of a consumer recession is evident everywhere except for the Commerce Department’s retail sales data.

Read more

• The AI Trade is Propping Up Equities: We start the week with U.S. equity futures modestly in the red as the talks with Iran have stalled out yet again — the massive move back into the AI trade has helped blunt what would have been a far bigger blow just a short two weeks ago (see Big-Company Profits Overcome Headwinds in today’s Wall Street Journal). A wide divide has emerged between the Tech sector, which is on track for a +48% YoY profit surge in Q1, and consumer-facing sectors of the S&P 500 with profits barely up +3% — yet another K-shape to this economy.

• Bonds Are Selling Off Again: Bond yields are on the rise everywhere — by about +4 basis points across Europe (4.9% for 10-year gilts) and Japan (2.45%) and by +2 basis points in the U.S. (4.32%) — even though the lone global economic datapoint overnight was a stinker in the form of German consumer confidence, which deteriorated further to -33.3 in May from what was already a bad -28.1 reading in April. What overshadowed that recessionary statistic was the release of an ECB survey of businesses showing a hook-up in expected selling prices to +3.5% for the next twelve months, from +2.9% in the prior forecast.

• Another Comment on the K-Shaped Economy: I am not sure it is well known that beneath the veneer, 118 stocks in the S&P 500 are still down more than -10% from their pre-war levels — mostly the ones vulnerable to the rising costs for fuel, aluminum, and other raw materials, and those dependent on sales to customers. That compares with only 82, mostly in the large-cap AI-related space, whose share prices are up more than +10% since the end of February. Strip out the Mag Seven (five of which report this week), and the market is down over the past two months. The S&P 500 has rallied +4% above the pre-war level, even though half the membership is still in the red column.

Read more

• Dip-Buying Reflex Still Strong: The big news yesterday wasn’t that the equity market closed lower amid ongoing headline news coming out of the Iran war (or the ceasefire that doesn’t look like one), but rather that the major averages bounced back. At one point, for example, the Dow was off -1.3%, and then the bargain hunters came in and trimmed the loss to -0.4% as the closing bell rang. The same was true for the S&P 500, which swung from -1.0% down mid-day to -0.4% at the close.

• Chip Momentum Running Hot: What isn’t changing is the epic run in the semiconductor space, which is riding an unprecedented sixteen-day winning streak and is up a ripping +38.7% over that time span. The terrific Intel results have given a +0.6% push to Nasdaq futures in the pre-open trade — chipmakers are the clear standout performers, yet again — but the S&P 500 is still on track for its first weekly decline since March, even as the Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its fourth straight weekly gain.

• Earnings Glow but Risks Priced Out Too Fast: An estimated 80% of U.S. companies have topped their EPS targets so far in the Q1 reporting period. It may have been too early for the war to show up in the U.S. earnings reports, which have retained their glow. After all, two-thirds of the quarter took hold before the conflict began. While the stock market rejoiced over the recent end to the bombing campaign, pricing out the end of the war seems to have been a bit hasty. And here we are today, with the average price of a gallon of diesel now +45% higher than it was pre-war, and a gallon of regular gasoline up +35%. I recommend a read of Energy traders dig in for long Middle East conflict on page 10 of today’s Financial Times.

Read more

• Earnings Take the Wheel: The S&P 500 remains steady near highs (as reflected in the S&P 500 and VIX), as investors look past geopolitical risks and focus instead on a heavy earnings slate — results from American Airlines, American Express, and Comcast will provide macro signals on fuel costs, travel demand, and U.S. consumer resilience.

• Industrial Strength, AI Jitters: Wednesday’s earnings from Tesla, IBM, and Boeing offered a useful cross-section of the market’s biggest anxieties and hopes, while also providing signals on the underlying pace of industrial growth. Tesla brought in a relief beat, and Boeing’s quarter was strong, showing some real-economy strength, while IBM didn’t do enough to reassure investors nervous about AI’s impact on software.

• Energy Shift Favors U.S. Gas: The U.S. natural gas sector will be a major strategic winner from the Iran conflict. Disruption to Middle Eastern production and liquefaction has led to U.S. supply emerging as a leading alternative, helping absorb soaring demand from both Europe and Asia.

Read more

• Markets Leaning on a Slippery Off-Ramp: Equities are treating the ceasefire and the absence of a worst-case oil shock as enough to keep the rally alive, even though the geopolitical situation remains unresolved and valuations look stretched relative to the risks still in play.

• Upstream Strength, Downstream Strain: U.S. corporate earnings are holding up better than many expected. Even GE Aerospace showed that commercial demand can still offset fuel and conflict pressures amid a global oil price shock. Meanwhile, Lufthansa has announced plans to cut -20,000 flights because of jet-fuel shortages. This is another example of an economic landscape that favors upstream owners of technology, materials, and essential infrastructure over downstream firms.

• Services Demand Deteriorating: While yesterday’s retail sales number for March was borderline blowout, the Philly Fed service sector diffusion index was short of stellar, coming in yet again at a contractionary -16.5 print for April. That only looked good next to the woeful -23.9 reading in March. Not as bad, but still pretty bad. New orders, the flashpoint for future demand, cratered to -16.9 from -4.7, to stand at a three-year low.

Read more

• Markets Keep Looking Past Tail Risks: The buy-the-dips mentality is well intact, and when negative headlines now come out, they are viewed more as an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy by both Tehran and Washington. Investors are trading this war “playbook” as one in which both sides are looking for an off-ramp while maintaining credibility and being able to declare some sort of victory. In essence, the muted reaction yesterday reflects a market that has learned to discount Trump’s escalation rhetoric, is positioned for a positive momentum-driven market steered by technicals, and firmly believes that WTI will remain in a tolerable range — not necessarily a market that has taken much time assessing tail risks.

• Global Defense Strengthens As a Theme: In terms of sectors, one winner — which was already a winner — from the Iran war is the global aerospace/defense sector, of which we are long in the Rosie Model Portfolio. I recommend a read of Germany Reinvents Itself As a Weapons Factory on page A8 of the Wall Street Journal — you don’t have to do much more than read the opening sentence: “As its export model breaks down, Germany is pivoting from cars to cannons — and trying to turn industrial decline into a defense boom.”

• AI Will Be a Disinflationary Pressure: Sentiment on the Treasury market remains quite sour, and the debate over inflation continues to rage, but there was an interesting article that showed up on page 7 of today’s Financial Times, well worth a read (AI boom in line to drive dis­in­fla­tion, North­ern Trust says). We tend to agree with the headline and the conclusions. There is no doubt that we are already seeing the productivity benefits of the AI boom, and productivity is the driver of unit labor costs, which in turn are the mother’s milk of inflation. Far more relevant than oil prices.

Read more

• Hormuz Standoff Renewed: The big news over the weekend was the renewed standoff at the Strait of Hormuz (gunfire and the U.S. seizing an Iranian cargo ship), with Iran reclaiming “strict” control and threatening to keep it closed until the President ends the U.S. naval blockade (all the while, the U.S. military is using sea drones to clear the mines from Hormuz). Suddenly, last week’s hopes for a quick end to the war have been dashed — though President Trump has retaliated by saying his response will be to stay at the negotiating table. A clear message that he wants to back away as the political heat at home intensifies.

Read more

• Stock Markets March On: The “what me, worry” stock market continues to price out the war (Iran’s economy has now been seriously crippled) and price in a very bright future, though there is no sign the global energy and shipping crunch is over. U.S. equity futures are up yet again (despite Netflix’s disappointing guidance, which sent the share price sliding -10% in the overnight trade) as the Nasdaq Composite hit another record on its way to its longest win streak since July 2009 — twelve straight days.

Read more

• Tech-Fueled Rally Drives Markets to Record Highs: Global equities remain in rally mode, but this time, it is less about what is happening in the Middle East and more to do with Taiwan Semiconductor’s upbeat guidance for 2026 (alongside a +58% YoY profit surge), which has added fuel to the renewed tech frenzy. Indeed, Tech has been the big outperformer of late, with the Nasdaq spiking +1.6% yesterday for its eleventh straight day in the green — the longest winning streak in five years and closing at its first record high since October.

• Markets Back to “Business as Usual”: This is beginning to get silly. It’s one thing, based on what has happened geopolitically, to have had the S&P 500 price out two-thirds or three-quarters of the wartime damage. But new highs? This has become more than the market treating the end of the war as a foregone conclusion; it is now back to business as usual, even though the full impact has not been revealed in the economic data.

• Extreme Valuations Meet AI-Fueled Speculative Frenzy: The price-to-sales ratio of the S&P 500? Try 3.5x. What is the long-run norm of the past four decades? Try 1.9x. This classifies as a near-3-standard-deviation event. And through all this, a new Pets.com has emerged. This shoe company, Allbirds, announced yesterday that it was rebranding to an AI compute company. Déjà vu! It announced that it is going to sell its footwear brand to American Exchange Group and rebranding as “NewBird AI” — and the share price shot up… wait for it… by +580%!!

Read more

• Stocks Recoup Pre-War Losses: The stock market rally enjoyed a solid extension yesterday and closed with strength. It was the tenth straight advance for the Nasdaq (longest win streak since 2021) and the ninth up day out of ten for the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000. The indexes aren’t yet at record highs but have essentially recouped their Iran war losses — while Energy stocks have virtually retraced their wartime gains. Even the bond market is back on an even keel after yesterday’s rally, and, at 4.26%, the 10-year T-note yield is just 6 basis points away from making a run at the 50-day moving average.

• Strong Breadth as Growth Stocks Lead: The S&P 500 rallied +1.2% and is now within striking distance of its all-time high (believe it or not, just -0.2% away from the January 27^th closing peak). Since March 30^th, the index has rallied by nearly +10%. A repeat of the post-“Liberation Day” snapback a year ago. Market breadth was strong again, with Chips, Biotech, and aggressive growth stocks leading, and Airline and Travel plays coming along for the ride (with fuel prices reversing from the nearby highs). Semiconductors, paced by Intel, have broken out.

• Peace Talks Are Back On: What has caused the jubilation is a second round of peace talks coming in the days ahead of the two-week ceasefire deadline — the naval blockade of Hormuz seems to be working (in the sense that the mullahs are panicking and a trail is being blazed to end the conflict). So, the risk-on trade is back on, even with the Strait still mostly closed and oil prices, while coming down, still elevated. Investors clearly are looking through the proverbial valley, and why not, since the President stated that he thinks we could have a deal by the end of the week!

Read more

• Another Headline-Driven Trading Day: We are seeing in real time how a headline-driven market behaves. First came the Trump threat of a blockade, which he is carrying out — a brilliant idea on several fronts. It chokes off Iranian oil revenues (an estimated loss of $435 million per day) and puts China in a position where it will be exerting pressure on the regime. Then we had this tape bomb come across the wires that the mullahs are no longer committed to the nuclear program (oh, sure thing). And the third item was Donald Trump claiming, “we’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal.” Sure they do.

• A Sector Mix With Historical Grounding: We ran a simple optimizer across nearly four decades of S&P 500 sector index data and found this out: had an investor bought and held just three sectors in equal weights over this time frame, the mix that has delivered the highest return on a volatility-adjusted basis, included (i) Tech, (ii) Health Care, and (iii) Consumer Staples. Consider this to be a concentrated yet still diversified mix of “growth” sectors where Tech provides the juice while Health Care and Consumer Staples provide the ballast, and typically help cushion this strategy in bear market phases. Simple, yet elegant.

• Key CPI Measures Are Well Contained: What is there not to like? I’m talking about last week’s CPI report for March, because the internals were really good. The Cleveland Fed’s median CPI number was a tame +0.2% MoM for the third month in a row. The “trimmed mean” underlying measure also rang in under +0.2% sequentially for the second time in the past three months and in five of the past seven. Next, we have the Atlanta Fed’s “core flexible” CPI metric, which maps out corporate pricing power, and it also came in at +0.2%, and it has been at this level or below in five of the past six months.

Read more

• Hormuz Blockade Risks Retaliation: The big news overnight is the announcement from President Trump that he intends to implement a full naval blockade on the entire Strait of Hormuz (so long as the vessels do not stop at the Iranian ports) following the collapse of talks with the Iranian delegation over the weekend. The next question will be how Tehran retaliates. It is not just the Iranian reaction, but also China’s (which has already issued warnings of its own).

• Metals Follow Oil Higher: Oil has unsurprisingly spiked nearly +9% to $104 per barrel, and with that, U.S. equity futures are in the red, and Asia-Pacific, Emerging Markets, and the Euro Stoxx 600 are all off around -0.8%. Why the equity markets have not been clobbered more is that the marginal investor believes this step by Trump will prompt the regime to begin living up to its commitment to restore traffic in the Strait (with the regime’s oil export revenues about to be severely crimped). Aluminum has joined crude oil on the up-escalator, firming +2.0% to a four-year high — watch copper, platinum, and fertilizer follow suit.

• Hungary Turns the Page: Lost in all the commotion over the Trump blockade announcement was the historic election result in Hungary, where Orbán’s sixteen-year tenure came to a resounding close — the rival Tisza party led by Péter Magyar emerged with 53.6% of the vote and 138 seats (a two-thirds super-majority). Markets have reacted very positively, with the forint surging +2.5% to a four-year high and the broad Hungarian equity market rising more than +4.0% to a new high. In short, investors are treating this as perhaps the most bullish political shift to hit Europe in many years — notably a key potential turning point for Hungary’s economy and markets as the country’s relationship with the EU is set to enter a new and more constructive chapter.

Read more

• Stock Rally Hits Pause: The two-day headline-driven U.S. equity market rally has pressed the pause button here in the early going (4:15 a.m. ET), with futures slightly in the red, but not before the S&P 500 managed to cross above all its major averages in this latest power move (now riding a seven-day winning streak; and the Dow is now in the green for the year!).

• Ceasefire on Shaky Ground: Markets simply like the fact that President Trump, to some extent, has begun to wave the proverbial white flag even though this ceasefire is proving to be very fragile at this point. From my lens, it can definitely be argued that Tehran, not needing to worry about its population or midterm elections, won this war in a strategic sense — see A Cease-Fire for Now in Iran, but a Blow to American Credibility on the front page of the New York Times and Iran Flexes Its Muscles On Economy on page A7 of today’s Wall Street Journal.

• China PPI Turns Positive: The overseas data were sparse, but there was one notable item, which is that China’s three-year experience with producer price deflation ended in March, with the PPI managing to rise +0.5% on a YoY basis, swinging from a -0.9% trajectory in February. Good news for manufacturers (and the Chinese profits cycle) but less so for retailers because the headline consumer inflation rate actually eased to +1.0% YoY from +1.3% (the MoM change was -0.4%).

Read more

• Fragile Foundations: Some sober second thought has set in over the veracity of this ceasefire — its fragility being exposed from the get-go — as U.S. equity futures have reversed course, but this is really only putting a dent in yesterday’s wild short-covering rally (the UAE’s Defense Ministry calculates that since the onset of this ceasefire, Tehran has launched 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drone attacks).

• Truce, Not Transformation: What’s happened is a two-week ceasefire, not a peace deal (as an example, Israel and Hamas have had no fewer than eight ceasefires in the past two decades… now where did that get us?). There are several reasons why the situation remains very fragile.

• China’s Strategic Gain: How does China come out as a winner? First, the U.S. now has no friends in the aftermath of this war. China is strategically positioned from this fact alone — America’s increasing isolation from the rest of the world. And a fiscal mess that has become further complicated by the gaping cost of the conflict. China has long shown it is a formidable competitor in the AI race, and with this war, it has also displayed its renewable energy dominance. China dominates renewable energy supply chains — producing the vast majority of the world’s solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and EVs — and exports of these technologies were already climbing before the war. As the oil crisis pushes countries to accelerate their energy transitions, China is the primary supplier.

Read more

• Relief Rally Runs Ahead: The risk-on trade is now on steroids over this two-week ceasefire that has at least temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz — but apparently on Tehran’s terms. The major issue is that investors have moved immediately to price in the end of the war at a time when it seems very difficult for the President to agree to any of Iran’s ten demands.

• Sharp Moves Dominate Early Market Action: The market response has been swift and dramatic. Brent crude has plummeted by as much as -16% to below $92 per barrel, and WTI is down nearly -20% (worst day since the onset of the 2020 global pandemic). European gas prices are off -20%. The Asia-Pac equity market composite has surged by more than +5.0%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up +4.5%. U.S. equity futures have spiked between +2.0% and +3.0% — the S&P 500 looks poised right now to pierce the 200-day moving average in a bull-run move for the first time since the aftermath of the Liberation Day reprieve nearly a year ago. The VIX collapsed to below 21x from around 26x and the nearby 35x peak. Talk about a swift reaction — most of this relief rally is already priced in!

• Beijing Emerges as the Quiet Winner: The DXY dollar index has plunged from around 100 to a four-week low of 98.7 and, with that, the Chinese yuan has emerged as the darling, hitting a three-year high overnight, and there is little doubt that Xi Jinping comes out the biggest winner from this mess because this conflict cost Beijing absolutely nothing, but did cost the U.S. a whole lot in terms of depleted armaments, a weakened fiscal backdrop, and greater global isolation due to the Trump tariff file (don’t think for a second that in the next twelve months, there is no potential for a blockade of the Taiwan Strait… which Beijing has long been planning for).

Read more

• Junk Bond Redemptions Causing Concern: Equity markets are firm to start the day, as investors shrug off the Trump bombing threats. All in, both the Asia-Pac and Emerging Market equity indices are on pace to post +0.8% advances. If there is pain, it has been in the junk bond market, where redemptions are on the rise. Jamie Dimon’s client letter, especially his warnings on private credit, is well worth a read.

• Tourism and Consumer Discretionary Take a Huge Hit: Losers in the Iran war have been global travel/tourism and consumer discretionary spending in general. So far, the gasoline shock has drained $150 billion out of household cash flows at an annual rate. If there is a winner, it is China, which planned for this war some time ago, as it did previously with the tariff file.

• Fade the Friday Payroll Report: We wonder why practically every economist has been gushing over Friday’s payroll report, which is destined to be revised and likely lower, as has been the case over 90% of the time in the past year. The hallmark of Friday’s report that was missed was that both average weekly earnings and the index of aggregate hours worked dipped in March (-0.1% MoM for the former; -0.2% for the latter). That’s a hot labor market? The two going down in tandem is basically a one-in-ten event.

Read more

• The Stock Market Still Has Few Bargains: In a sign of these topsy-turvy times, consider that coming off the worst quarter since 2022, we experienced the best session of the year last week (on Wednesday). This is not really an investable stock market at the moment. The range of outcomes and fat tail risks are far too wide to have any conviction right now -- or to be putting on any large positions on anything outside of either cash or short-term bonds. One thing is for sure — even with all the angst and anxiety of the past five weeks, the S&P 500 still trades at 27x on a one-year-forward free-cash-flow multiple basis, fully +37% above the long-run norm. Bargains are few and far between (and the thing about cash flow is that there are no accounting adjustments made).

• Oil Approaching Recessionary Levels: Polymarket bettors closed out last week putting the chances that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30^th at 84% — up from 61% the day before. Betting markets are just that, but this is real money people are putting on the line. The risks look to be one way in terms of where oil prices are headed, and as I keep saying, a move to $120 per barrel on WTI will be the pain point for an iron-clad recession call, if past is prescient. With that in mind, the market-based odds that we reach that mark this month have risen to 65%.

• Few Assets Are Priced for Recession: Every single recession in the post-WWII era, except for the 2020 pandemic, followed a major spike in crude prices. The average price run-up was a double, and that is why $120 per barrel is the key threshold this time around. From where WTI closed on Thursday, we are 85% there. Best to screen your portfolio to see what is priced for recession odds that high.

Read more

• Volatility of Volatility Continues: The global markets picture shows some cautious action after the initial sharp reaction to disappointment from the White House overnight. Worries about oil prices and stagflation are partly being balanced by lingering hopes that the war will not drag too far into the year. “Volatility of volatility” is likely to remain with us for a while as markets keep guessing what lies ahead in geopolitics and economic policy.

• Steepening Risk Beyond the Oil Shock: We remain convinced that central banks are unlikely to respond mechanically to an oil shock that they cannot control. The ECB has kept a tightening option on the table, but the emphasis remains on assessing the size and persistence of the shock and, above all, whether it feeds into wages, expectations, and broader price-setting. The Fed has already begun leaning the other way. However, the long end is likely to remain more anchored, resulting in some steepening to reflect the looming long-term fiscal risks, which have only been worsened by war-related spending.

• Energy Shock Hits EM bonds, China Holds Firm: Higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, with interest-rate forwards now pricing in higher yields for every benchmark-eligible EM economy except Brazil and Turkey. Since year-end, rising local bond yields have generated losses across nearly all EM markets, with China the main exception. China has proved relatively resilient and stable in the face of the Middle East war, much as it did during last year’s trade war. Year-to-date returns remain positive in Brazil, Colombia, China, and Malaysia, while the sell-off elsewhere in Asia has been steep.

Read more

• A Relief Rally but Not a Clear Turning Point: Yesterday’s lights-out rally in the stock market may have had less to do with the so-called “end of the war” trade and more to do with month-end and quarter-end market positioning in a market that was near-term technically oversold. Keep in mind that all the major indices are still mired below their 200-day trendlines. Let’s not go any further than that. It’s mostly technical. The all-clear for the risk-on trade in any meaningful way hinges on the full reopening of the Strait with no more drone threats and no fees being collected by the regime to cross it.

• Markets Cheer Hopes of a Short War: The market mood remains bright into the wee hours of Wednesday as President Trump stated that he will end the war in two to three weeks with or without a deal (reducing fears of a prolonged conflict), and the UAE issued a statement that it will join in the fight to take over Kharg Island, and Bahrain is working on a UN Security Council resolution to try and reopen the Strait of Hormuz and provide a mandate to a naval task force. All the while, a third U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is heading to the Gulf, and the President apparently is also going to be addressing the nation at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time.

• Private Credit Risk Runs Wide: Nobody should be underestimating the extent to which private credit is interconnected with other parts of the financial system — primarily the insurance companies and, indeed, some of the biggest banks, and not just the regionals. Researchers at the Boston Fed concluded that the banking sector’s relationship with private lenders is “extensive” and issued a warning that “those links indirectly expose banks to the traditionally higher risks” associated with this space.

Read more

• Headline-Driven Rally Amid Policy Whiplash: Bloomberg News runs with an article claiming that Trump is now willing to end the war even with the Strait remaining largely closed — Stocks Rally, Oil Steadies as US Weighs End to War — timed perfectly for average nationwide gasoline prices to climb above $4 per gallon for the first time in four years. That column was ratified by Trump Looks to Exit With Strait Still Closed. This all begs the question as to why he brought thousands of troops into the region — but a headline-driven stock market is rallying in kind.

• Rate Hikes Priced Out: The Fed rate hike that had been priced in has now been priced out, but there is still downside Treasury yield potential, especially at the front end, once cuts get repriced back. Adding to that were the comments by Jay Powell yesterday, when he made it clear that inflation expectations have remained range-bound even with the oil price breakout and that the Fed is simply not equipped to deal with a supply shock of this size.

• Peace Priced In, Risk Premium Stays: Peace, at any cost, is what investors crave, though they may not have factored in the implications of Iran staying in control of the Strait. Or what if Donald Trump is really planning a surprise attack of his own with all these shifting narratives? All to be considered at another time, but it does mean that even if hostilities end, the risk premium in oil prices does not.

Read more